Retail Real Estate Market in Viet Nam: Q4/2024 Performance and 2025 Outlook

The retail real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Ha Noi exhibited balanced growth in 2024, drawing significant interest from investors and homebuyers. Savills Q4/2024 Market Brief provides a comprehensive analysis of supply, demand, and market performance in both cities over the past year and offers a 2025 outlook.

1/ Retail Real Estate Market in HCMC 

1.1/ Decentralised stock

As of Q4/2024, the total stock reached 1.6 million sq m NLA, up 1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 6% year-on-year (YoY). The new supply was concentrated in non-CBD areas, driven by larger land banks and expanding urban developments.

By 2027, 12 projects will add nearly 165,429 sq m NLA, with annual growth of 3% from 2025 to 2027. In 2025, key CBD additions include Marina Central Tower and Lancaster Legacy.

1.2/ Improving performance

In Q4/2024, occupancy reached 93.5%, stable QoQ and up 1.6 ppts YoY. Average ground floor rent rose 6% QoQ and 10% YoY to VND 1.5 million/sq m/month.

For 2024, occupancy increased by 2 percentage points (ppts) YoY to 93%, driven by major tenant expansions (Poseidon, Galaxy Cinema, Muji, Uniqlo, Nitori) and strong demand for new projects. The average ground floor rent was VND 1.4 million/sq m/month, and YoY rose across all areas, supported by rent escalation policies and high rates at new and CBD properties.

1.3/ Positive demand

Total take-up exceeded 80,000 sq m NLA, with retail sales of goods and services (RSGS) in HCMC rising 10.5% YoY to VND 1.2 quadrillion.

A Savills survey of nearly 600 leasing transactions in 2024 revealed that expansions accounted for 88% of the leased space, while new market entrants contributed 12%. The F&B sector led leasing activity, occupying nearly one-third of the total space, followed by fashion at 24% and entertainment at 17%.

1.4/ Rising luxury market

With a dynamic consumer base and an expanding high-net-worth population, HCMC remains a strategic hub for foreign brands, particularly in the luxury segment.

In 2024, the city saw a 24% YoY increase in luxury retail, reaching 36 high-end stores, with new entrants such as Vertu, Tudor, and Franck Muller. According to Statista, Viet Nam’s luxury goods market is expected to generate US$218 million in revenue by 2029, with an average annual growth rate of 13% over the next six years.

2/ Retail Real Estate Market in Ha Noi

2.1/ Steady supply growth

Total retail supply remained stable QoQ and increased by 2% YoY, driven by adding three new retail podiums: Heritage West Lake, Taisei Square, and Grand Terra, and the removal of The West’s retail space. Over the past five years, retail space supply has grown at an average annual rate of 3%.

Shopping centres dominate the market, accounting for 63% of total supply, retail podiums contribute 17%, and department stores account for 3%.

2.2/ Improved occupancy rates

Ground floor rent increased by 2% QoQ and 5% YoY, primarily driven by department stores (+4% YoY) and shopping malls (+8% YoY). Notably, rental rates in the Central District saw a significant rise, up 33% QoQ and 40% YoY, reaching VND 4.5 million/sq m/month.

Occupancy remained stable with QoQ but decreased by 3 ppts YoY, at 85%. Retail podiums experienced an 8 ppts increase YoY, while shopping malls saw a 6 ppts decline due to new supply from major projects. The occupancy rate at department stores remained unchanged.

2.3/ Revenue sharing

Previously limited to department stores such as Lotte Center Hanoi and AEON Malls, the revenue-sharing leasing model is now being introduced in major shopping centres like Vincom Center and Lotte Mall West Lake.

2.4/ Expansion of international retailers

In 2024, international brands such as Lotte Group and Central Retail expanded their presence in Hanoi with major projects: Lotte Mall West Lake and TopMarket at The Linc @ ParkCity. AEON will open its ninth shopping centre in  Viet Nam with the launch of AEON Xuan Thuy in January 2025.

2.5/ Retail Real Estate Market Outlook in 2025

By the end of 2025, the market is expected to add 140,700 sq m of new supply from four shopping centres and three retail podiums. Between 2026-2027, an additional 174,100 sq m of floor space will be introduced from seven projects, including Ha Noi Center (175 Nguyen Thai Hoc and Starlake B1CC1 & B1CC2.