Hong Kong’s Retail Leasing Market Recovery Continues, but Polarisation Deepens as Core Districts Stabilise First
- Prime street shops pause after Q1 rebound: All four core districts were flat QoQ in Q2, consolidating earlier gains rather than entering another rental upswing.
- Mall rents retreat, led by the New Territories: Major shopping centres fell 1.8% QoQ overall; New Territories (-2.7%) and Kowloon (-2.0%) saw the greatest pressure.
- Discretionary spending leads an uneven recovery: Jewellery & watches (+22.1%) and consumer durables (+13.8%) outperformed, while supermarkets grew just 0.9% as everyday consumption remained weak.
- Northbound spending weighs on neighbourhood malls: HK$55.7bn of annual northbound spending and around 10.4m monthly resident departures continue to divert local spending; high occupancy no longer guarantees rental income growth.
- New supply intensifies competition for spending: Around 8m sq ft of retail space is due from 2026 onwards, raising the importance of tenant mix, positioning and the ability to attract destination visits.
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